Nigeria is Africa’sleading oil producer and the world’s fifth oil producer with a productioncapacity of about 2 million bbl per day. Its oil reserves are concentrated in the Niger Delta region of thecountry.  Petroleum from this region“account for over 80% of GDP, 95% of national budget and 90% of foreignexchange earnings” (Kaiama Declaration), but according to Human Rights Watch (HRW), “these communities have seen little benefit from the revenue derivedfrom the oil exports of around two million barrels of oil a day, and yet theyhave suffered the adverse consequences of oil production”.  In spite of this huge oil reserve, the regionremains the most poorest in Nigeria.  As Amnesty International (AI) puts it, “Theinhabitants of the Niger Delta remain among the most deprived oil communities in the world – 70% live on less than $1 a day. In spite of its windfall gains,as global oil prices have more than doubled in the last two years, Nigerian government has failed to provide services, infrastructure or jobs in theregion.”  Poverty in the region can beattributed to the neglect of successive governments.  According to AI, “the Nigerian Federal Government is the prime beneficiary of the revenue earned from selling the crude oil abroad; however, the government has devoted little resources to its population.  In fact, in the Niger Delta,the quality of water available is poor and often contaminated; Schools are almost non-existent; and state-run hospitals and clinics are under-equipped or short-staffed.”

Poverty, environmental degradation and governmental neglect led Kenule Beeson Saro-Wiwa,the spokesman for the Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People (MOSOP), to campaign for the Ogoni Bill of Rights which among other things called for oil companies to be environmentally friendly in their operations.  The Abacha military government of the time“felt unduly challenged by Ken, following which he lunched his war-head on theperceived enemy of his rule ship” (George Onah).  Abacha arrested Ken Saro-Wiwa and eight otherOgonimen (Ogoni 9), denied them due process of the law through a military tribunal,and executed them on November 10, 1995. The Ogori 9 were not the only people from the region to go through legalmurder, as the Vanguard carried it in an article titled “defining the NigerDelta Struggle”, “Isaac Adako Boro, before Saro-Wiwa, met the same fate afterhe was released from prison where he was serving a life sentence for trying toremove his people and their land from hostile control”.

Late Sani Abacha, fmr pres. Obasanjo, current pres. Yar'Adua

Protestscontinued after the Saro-Wiwaa execution but were on a small scale and more community base, and received little or no attention unless protests pose a threat to oilproduction.  “What is now known as theNigerian Oil Crisis began on 25 September 2004 when the Niger Delta People’sVolunteer Force (NDPVF) threatened to attack oil facilities and infrastructure in the Delta region.  Royal Dutch Shell responded the next day by evacuating 235 personnel from its oil fields.  The NDPVF threatened to declare an all-out war against Obasanjo’s government on 1 October and told all oil companies and foreign workers to leave the Delta”, according to Global Security.  The leader of NDPVF, Alhaji Mujahid Dokubo-Asari was arrested on September 20, 2004, charged with treason on October 6 and is awaiting judgment. NDPVF were silenced after the arrest of its leader, but in January 2006,a new militant group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger RiverDelta (MEND) came on the scene and is now the dominant militant group in theregion.  According to the BBC, “MEND and the other militant groups claim to be standing up for Delta resident”.

The effects of this conflict or crisis on Nigeria and the West African subregion have necessitated the writing of this paper.  The paper will first take the side of the militants as to what their demands are, the side of the government will also be taken as to what it says and has done about the conflict and then the paper will make a proposed settlement plan.

MEND, under its leader Major-General Goodwill Tamuno, has made a number of demands tothe Nigerian government and the oil companies. MEND, unlike NDPVF, it is not calling on the Niger Delta to secede, but according to them, if their demands are not met, they will intensify their activities in the region.  Their demands,among other things, include employment for the youth of the Delta, greater share of oil revenue, protecting the environment, compensation by oil companies and land ownership.  It must be noted that these demands have already been made by various communities in the region.  In essence, MEND is only using violence to back the demands of the individual communities.  MEND has also called for the release of Dokubo-Asare.

On the issue of employment for local people, MEND claims that unemployment among the youth is very high.  This claim hasbeen made by almost all communities in the Delta, to the fact that evengraduate unemployment is also high.  This claim is supported by Eglare W.O. Ojhogar, Chief of Ugborodo Community in the Delta state, in an interview with AI. According to him, “it is like paradise and hell.  They have everything.  We have nothing…  If we protest, they send soldiers.  They sign agreements with us and then ignoreus.  We have graduates going hungry,without jobs.  And they bring people fromLagos to workhere.” This claim is supported by HRW  ina repot in January 1999 to the effect that “those with full time employment inthe oil industry are paid high wages for skilled work, but they are well-paid minority surrounded by a mass of un- or underemployed; most do not come from the oil producing communities in any event.”

Demands have also been made for a greater share in revenue generated from oil sale.  According to the Nigerian Constitution, 13% of oil revenue should be allocated to the region.  The region claims 13% is a slap in the face and want as much as 50%.  This claim canbe traced back to the Kaiama Declaration which noted that there had been a“drastic reduction of the Derivation Principle from 100% (1953), 50% (1960),45% (1970), 20% (1975), 2% (1982), 1.5% (1984), to 3% (1992)”. To show their disapproval for the 13% in oil share, “elders of the zone walked out of theNational Political Reform Conference conveyed by President Olusegun Obasanjo in2005, having failed to grant the demand of the South-south representatives atthe conference for an upward review of the 13 per cent derivation to25 per centwith its graduation to 50 per cent in subsequent years” as the Accra Mail carried in its article “the Niger Delta as campaign agenda” on March 4, 2007. Daniel Bahnt Kurti claims that corruption takes part of the 13% and that “Delta politicians and militants are demanding that, at a minimum, the region receive50%.”

Militants also demand that oil companies operate in an environmental friendly manner, thesame demand by Saro-Wiwa.  According to indigenesof the region, oil companies have no respect for the environment and that the practices threaten their survival.  Therehave been numerous reports of environmental abuse by oil companies and this has led to a number of protests in the region. For example, in May 2001, members of the Eket community besieged the Exxon Mobile Corporation, accusing it of environmental neglect.  According to the Vanguard, “the methodsemployed in exploring and exploiting crude oil deposits in the Niger Delta, fall far below International Best Practices and is portentous to the future of the terrain” and that other “natural occurrences from the depletion of theprotective ozone layer, the warming of the earth, the defrosting of the masses of ice cakes in the Artic may result in gigantic floods, which may wash away many communities in the Niger Delta”.

To Support this claim on the environment, AI states that for “over 40 years ofexploration and production, oil companies have left large parts of the Niger Delta uncultivable, due to frequent oil spills, leakages, and the effect of gas flaring or other accidents."  MEND has also demanded that the oil companies compensate the region for the harm done to the environment.  According to the Daniel Bahnt Kurti, MEND is demanding “that Royal Dutch Shell, which produces close to half Nigeria’s oil, pay the ljaws $ 1.5 billion in environmental compensation…”  This claim did not just come out of nowhere, for example according HRW, “occasional large oil spills kill fish and agricultural crops, and pollute water, with serious effects for the communities and families affected, especially on dry land or in fresh water swamp zones where spills are contained in a small area… Poorly designed causeways and canals used by the oil industry affect the hydrology of the seasonally flooded fresh water swamp and the brackish water supplies.” For all the damage done to theenvironment, communities have not been compensated. This has led somecommunities to ask to be compensated for the harm done them either in cash orin kind (project development).

MEND has supported the Ijaw community in their demand for land ownership.  This demand is contained in the kaiama Declaration,which among other things declared that Ijaw people “cease to recognize all undemocratic decrees that rob our people/communities of the right to ownershipand control of our lives and resources, which were enacted without our participation and consent.”  Two factors necessitate this demand, according to HRW, “the degradation of the environmentof Ijaw-land by transnational oil companies and the Nigerian Statearise mainly because Ijaw people have been robbed of their natural rights to ownership and control of their land and resources.”

Recently, MEND has also made some political demands. The group has demanded the release of NDPVF leader, Dokobo-Asari and Diepreye Alamieyeseigha, a former governor from the south, jailed by the stateafter jumping bail in the U.K.,on charges of money laundering.  MEND hasalso demanded the withdrawal of all military personnel from the region, adding, that if their demands are not met, they will disrupt oil production, which will in effect bring Nigeria’seconomy crumbling. 

To ensure that they are taken serious, MEND has employed violence to back theirclaims.  It has on a number of occasions, engaged the Nigerian Army in gun battles. In March 2006, Kayode Komolafe said, “The way [the MEND militiamen] hasbeen able to engage [the Nigerian military] in the last month or so, thesophistication of fire power, it’s no child’s play”.  MEND also employs hostage taking to press forits demands.  Majority of hostages are foreigners working for the oil companies. The group also has attacked various pipelines and other oil facilities in an attempt to disrupt oil production and transportation.  “MEND threatened more attacks and vowed to cut daily oil exports by 1 million barrels”, says Daniel B. Kurti.

The Nigerian government on the other hand, has insisted that there are laws governing all natural resources in the country and that the demand for land ownership is unconstitutional.  There are laws such as, Oil Pipelines Act of 1956, Oil in Navigable Waters Act 1968, Petroleum Act 1969, Land Use Act 1978, and Federal Environmental Protection Agency Act 1988.  The Petroleum Act for example, makes its clear that the federal government has the absolute control over the country’s oil resources.  The demand forland ownership is a questioning of the supremeness of the Constitution, whichhas article 1 (1) as “The Constitution is supreme and its provisions shall have binding force on the authorities and persons throughout the Federal Republic of Nigeria.”

The government also insists that the activities of the militants are illegal and an upfront to economic development.  In thisdirection, the government on a number of occasions sent security forces to the region either to protect oil facilities or to bring down the violence in the region.  There have been a number ofspecial task forces created to handle the security issues of the Niger Delta.  Special task forces such as Rivers State Internal Security Task Force, Operation Flush in River State, Operation Salvage in Bayelsa State and the Paramilitary Mobile Policehave been very active in the region.  Asin any tropical West African country, the government sees this as a regionalissue which has economic and security effects on the whole nation.  For this reason, the government is not“sparing the rod to spoil the child”, which has led to various reported abuseand killings by these security forces.

In explaining why the government has not rolled tanks yet, Mrs. Oluremi Oyo,Senior Special Assistant to the President on Media said, “The President is justas concerned about the situation in the Niger Delta as everyone.  If the President is not rolling out all the tanks, it is because he believes in the sanctity of lives.  He believes that it is possible that withinthe Niger Delta region, we can have people come to the table”.  This statement suggests that the governmentis prepared to let the issue play itself and supports the idea of “divide andrule” politics as reported in numerous media circles.

Recently,to reduce tension in the region, the government set up the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), Council on Socio-Economic Development of CoastalStates.  There has also been a number of stakeholder meetings aimed at finding common ground to the violence.  On July 18, 2006, according to the UNDP,President Obasanjo “presented the Niger Delta Human Development Report (NDHDR)to a multi-state holder’s forum that included free governors, key ministers,leads of security agencies and the other government agencies, communityleaders, members of civil societies, captains of the oil industry anddevelopment partners”(UNDP). In this report the government made a seven-pointproposal for developing the human resource of the region.  These are:

-Promote peace as the foundation of development

-Make local governance effective and responsiveto the needs of the people

-Improve and diversify the economy

-Promote social inclusion and improved access tosocial services

-Promote environmental sustainability to preservethe means of people’s sustainable livelihoods

-Take an integrated approach to HIV/AIDS

-Build sustainable partnership for theadvancement of human development”

Although the government seeks the actions and demands as illegitimate, it deems the concernsof the general populace of the region as legitimate and is making efforts todevelop the region and its people.  Thisis illustrated by the President comment at the launching of the NDHDR.  In his comments, he said “the Niger Delta isnot a problem.  It is an opportunity fortransformation.  It is a possibility.”

Settlement Plan

In proposing a settlement plan, let usfirst look at the BATNA of the militants. In case there is no agreement, the militants will continue to engage inoil smuggling, enrich a few commanders like Major-General Godwill Tamuno and his inner circle, get more arms, prolong the conflict and destabilize the region, and psychologically question the authority of the government.  This BATNA puts the Nigerian government onthe defensive, in that although it also has a BATNA, it is not as strong asthat of the militants. The governments BATNA is to use alternative means to endthe conflict, since persistence of the conflict is a sign of weakness on itspart.  When the conflict persists, it isto the benefit of the militants, if it ends the benefit is to thegovernment.  So a “no agreement” servesthe best interest of the MEND. With this in mind, we propose a settlement planthat serves to weaken the BATNA of the militants, thereby leading or forcingthem to accept an agreement plan.

Since the MEND claim to be championing theneeds and aspirations of the people of the Niger Delta, I am proposing asettlement plan that seeks to make a direct contact with the people that MENDclaims to represent with an emphasis on traditional African political system ofchieftaincy. Hence in dealing with MEND, the government should embark on amassive behind the scene deliberations with the chiefs and peoples of theregion to gain the trust. This is because of my perception although militancyis illegal, illegitimate and a question on the integrity of the constitution ofthe Federal Republic of Nigeria it presents a threat that cannot beignored. 

Since the onus falls on the government to ensure peace and security, I propose that it uses operant condition, a psychological theory of learning, as its guide in its handling of the conflict to condition the people of the Niger Delta to respond favorably to its activitiesand at the same time in negotiations with MEND. Operant condition as mentioned above was propounded by B. F. Skinner andis based on the assumption that a deprived organism in a box (Skinner box) willrandomly move around in the box seeking to escape.  As the organism moves around in the box, it stumbles on a lever and presses it.  Immediately following this, the organism is rewarded with a pellet of food.  The organism makes another random movement and presses on the lever again, it is again rewarded.  After a few trials, the organism learns thatby pressing the lever, it gets a reward. A deprived organism, upon being put in the Skinner box again, will pressthe lever in succession to be rewarded. 

This theory must now be applied to settling the conflict in the Niger Delta.  Instead of the government waiting for thepeople of the region to make a desired move, the government has to present a stimulus to enlist a favorable behavior from the Delta populace.  The long neglect of the region has psychologicallyconditioned the people to feel used or disrespected; and for this reason, they have to be de-conditioned to be conditioned. In line with this, the government should first of all ensure that environmental issues are dealt with.  Thiscan be done by the government working closely with oil companies to ensure that these companies become socially responsible and operate in an environmentally friendly manner.  The oil companies should find an environmentally friendly way of disposing of its production waste.  In case there is/are any accidental environmental hazards, the government should ensure that these companies do notleave it unattended.  In effect, the government should ensure that oil companies rectify or work on the damage caused to the environment.

The government should also organize periodic meetings with the chiefs and elders of the various tribes in the region.  This will inform the people of the region that their culture is also respected just likeYuroba’s, Ibo’s and Hausa’s.  Local government should be strengthened.  Local representation in the political process should be encouraged and since Nigeria is federal state, more autonomy should be granted to the Niger Delta region to determine how they want their natural resources extracted and exploited.  One thing the government should do is toensure the minister of energy is from the region.

As the government is able to do these things, it weakens the BATNA of MEND and can then go to the negotiation table with MEND, not forgetting that the people MEND claims to represent are ready to exhibit favorable behaviors to elicit a reward.  The expected favorable behavioron the government side will be for the ordinary people of the region to distance themselves from MEND.  So the same stimulus is presented to both MEND and tribes in the region but with different intent.

At the negotiation table, the government should be the first mover, thereby making MEND react.  The government should firstpropose that if MEND releases all hostages, it will provide portable drinking water in the region.  Since thegovernment’s aim is to create distrust between MEND and the various tribes, MEND will find itself in a corner since the provision of portable drinking water is something the people really need. Their refusal to agree to such a proposal will reduce local support andso they might make a counter offer that they also want rural electrification in addition.  This, the government can agree to, but only in partnership with the local people and MEND itself, thereby forcing MEND to accept because their refusal will indicate a lack of concern for itsown people.  I must emphasize that another favorable behavior from the ordinary people is to put pressure on MENDto accept an agreement; hence the government conditions them to act as apressure group.  Emphasis must also be placed on the strength of the consequence (behavior) desired.  Thus if the government expects immense pressure from the local people on MEND and it proposes portable water in only the towns of the region, it will not get the needed consequence.

Just as the hostage situation is cleared, the government should make another move again.  The government can and should propose that if MEND stops its attack on oil companies and facilities, it will also engage in developmental activities such as provision of schools and health facilities.  This proposal will be a stimulus presented and expected to elicit a response (stop attacks on oil companies and facilities) from MEND.  The stimulus (proposal) as presented to MEND is also expected to elicit a response from the local communities of the Niger Delta, the source of MEND support.  The response being the main aim of conditioning, i.e. for the local communities to provide less support by distancing itself and or to put pressure on MEND to accept an agreement.

The government should keep in mind the conditioning, the timing of consequence is very important. The time interval between the first and second proposal will determine how MEND will respond to subsequent proposals. Also, the time taken for thegovernment to deliver on its promise would also determine how it will respond to not providing support to MEND.

As attacks stop, the next step is for the government to find a way to get MEND to give up its arms.  In light of this, the government can propose that if MEND turns in its arms, the government will absorb them (MEND) into the regular army and seek to reduce unemployment in the region.  The leaders of MEND can be absorbed into the local government structure so they could play active roles in governing the region.  To achieve are duction in unemployment, the government should engage in behind the scenes negotiations with oil companies to allocate a certain percentage of its labor to indigenes of the region.

As the governmentis able to get MEND to give up its arms and gets integrated into the general society (something like an internal DDR), the conflict comes to a stop but notan end, in that the conflict can resume anytime the community feels used by the government.  To prevent this, the government should complete the conditioning process by providing a reward tothe region for the pressure exerted on MEND throughout the process.  This reward should be an increase in the shareof oil revenue.  Since historically, the region has been made to feel deprived of what is duly theirs, any giving back will greatly motivate them to support the government and prevent further militant activities.  At this stage, the government should make more use of the chieftaincy institution since traditionally African societies have enormous respect for their Chiefs.  This is because Chiefs are seen as the link between the living the dead.  For this, a traditional African and in this case, Nigerians pay more respect to their chieftaincy institution than the Western form of governance.  The continuous collaboration between the Chiefs and the people of the region on one land and the government on the otherwill provide a stable environment and ensure a rapid acceptance of government policies in the region.

In conclusion,it must be emphasized that the Nigerian government is responsible for ensuring internal security in Nigeria and also seeing to it that Nigeria remains a single entity.  In this regard, the pressure falls on the government to bring the conflict to an end and such as has to be the first mover at negotiations. MEND’s actions question the authority of the government.  MEND can care less since the conflict benefits its leaders.  The government on the other hand, loses credibility both internally and externally.  Innocent civilians get killed, which increases local resentment towards the government, net trade income is reduced, meaning less developmental activities being undertaken, and the government being perceived as weak in a region in which it remains a powerhouse.  These and other covert implications of the conflict led to the proposal as offered above. The overall intent of such a proposal is to motivate local communitiesto move from a position of neglect to one of unity.  Conditioning, which serves as the base of the proposal, is to motivate local communities not to support militant activitiesbut rather use established means to voice their opinions. Since MEND claims to represent the interest of local communities, MEND will have nothing to fightfor if these communities feel satisfied by what the government does.  Hence, the satisfaction of local communities presents a pretext for MEND to stop fighting.

This propose settlement plan is in a way like how President Kennedy handled the Cuban missile crises just that this time, the Nigerian government is not giving MEND time to think of the effects of its actions, but rather to assume that MEND is a rational group that can reason to distinguish between sense and bunkum. At the same time, the government will be working to gain the trust of the local communities. It is a give and take activity in which parties to the conflictwin nor loose, but rather the winner will be the local communities, just likethe U.S.A. removing its weapons from Turkey and Russia removing its weapons from Cuba, then mankind wins. If two elephants fight, at the end of the day it is the ground that suffers; in this case the local communities. In effect both parties sever their interest to give and take to ensure peace in the region.

References:

1. Amnesty International: Human Rights & Oil in Nigeria. AI Index: AFR 44/023/2004, August1, 2004. www.amnesty.org/library/print/ENGAFR440232004
2. Amnesty International: Nigeria: Oil, Poverty and Violence. AI Index: AFR 44/017/2006 (Public), August 2006. www.amnesty.org/library/print/ENGAFR440172006
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12. Ijaw Resource Center: Ijaw Youths of the Niger Delta; the Kaiama Declaration, 11^th December, 1998. www.ijawcenter.com/kaiama_declaration.html
13. Kurti, Daniel Balint: New Militia is Potent Force in Nigeria’s Oil-Rich Delta Region. The Christian Science Monitor, March 7, 2006. www.csmonitor.com/2006/0307/p04s01-woaf.htm
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The author of this article is a graduate student at New York University. He could be reached atoa318@nyu.edu.

[1] AmnestyInternational: Human Right & Oil in Nigeria. opt. cit.